✍️ What Trump’s Treasury ‘Expert’ Said about Prices— and Why It Needs Fact-Checking
If only it were that simple; what state comparisons actually show
Trump’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, appeared on the Nov. 23 Meet the Press and offered a simple solution for Americans feeling squeezed by rising prices:
“The easiest way for people to bring their prices down is to move from a blue state to a red state.”
He cited a Council of Economic Advisers analysis that inflation is about 0.5 percentage point lower in red states than in blue states.
That line makes for a sharp sound bite. But like a lot of bold claims, it leaves out almost everything that actually matters.
First, inflation and the cost of living aren’t the same thing. A lower inflation rate doesn’t mean groceries, housing, health care, or insurance actually cost less today. And it certainly doesn’t mean a cheaper state offers better wages, safer communities, or stronger public services.
Second, moving is expensive, disruptive, and risky. Changing jobs, navigating new schools and social ties, dealing with housing markets, and paying the cost of the move itself: That’s not a solution; it’s a gamble.
And the real-world differences between states are far more complicated than a partisan talking point.
So, before anyone packs a moving truck, it’s worth taking a clear, documented look at what the evidence actually shows about the cost of living, wages, poverty, crime, health care, education, and the basic quality of life across states.
That’s where the picture changes — quickly and dramatically.
Moving to a Red State to Lower Prices: What the Evidence Actually Shows
Below is a fact-based summary supported by current data from 2024–2025 sources. State-to-state comparisons show a clear pattern of the tradeoffs in real terms.
1. Yes, many red states have a lower cost of living — mostly because housing is cheaper.
Recent cost-of-living indexes consistently show cheaper states tend to be Republican-led Southern states such as Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas. Blue states like California, Washington, New York, and Massachusetts are among the most expensive.
Source: cost-of-living index 2024–2025 (for example, Mississippi 87.3, California 142.2, the national average of 100).
State comparison example:
California → Texas
Housing is undeniably cheaper in many Texas regions, and everyday costs often run lower. But this is the only category where Texas holds a clear advantage.
2. Lower prices don’t mean people are better off. Poverty remains highest in the cheapest states.
Mississippi has the lowest cost of living and the highest poverty rate (nearly 20%). Alabama and Arkansas show the same pattern: low housing costs, high poverty.
Source: state poverty and COL comparison, 2025.
State comparison example:
Massachusetts → Mississippi
Yes, you’d pay less for housing. But you’d move from one of the lowest poverty rates and strongest social safety nets in the country to one of the highest-poverty, least-protected states.
3. Red states generally have lower income, lower education levels, and shorter life expectancy.
Large-scale studies confirm that red states, on average, have:
Lower household incomes
Lower educational attainment
Higher poverty
Shorter life expectancy
Sources: Brookings/Lifespan studies; income, education, and lifespan studies
Whether you personally come out ahead depends a lot on your job, age, health, and where exactly you’d move.
State comparison example:
Washington → Tennessee
Washington offers higher wages, higher education rates, and a longer average lifespan. Tennessee offers lower rent — but with lower wages, lower school performance, and poorer health outcomes.
4. Health care is where the red/blue divide becomes a chasm.
States that refused Medicaid expansion (mostly red) have double the uninsured rate of expansion states: 14.1% vs. 7.6%. Texas ranks last in health care access and affordability.
Sources: Medicaid uninsured comparison, 2025; national health-system scorecards.
Moving somewhere “cheap” can mean moving to a place where one ER visit can bankrupt you.
State comparison example:
California → Texas
California has comprehensive Medicaid expansion, strong insurance protections, and better access. Texas has the highest uninsured rate, fewer protections, and higher barriers to care. Lower rent doesn’t cover the risk.
5. Crime is not lower in red states; murder rates are often higher.
For more than 20 years, red states have had higher murder rates than blue states — about 23% higher on average between 2000 and 2020. Many of the highest-homicide cities are in Republican-led states.
Sources: state-level homicide analyses, 2020-2024.
State comparison example:
New York → Florida
Despite Florida’s reputation for “tough” crime politics, Florida has a higher violent-crime risk than New York, while also offering fewer social services and weaker gun-safety laws.
6. Women’s health, maternal mortality, and domestic-abuse-related risks tend to be worse in non-expansion, low-investment states.
Commonwealth Fund rankings show states restricting reproductive health or with weak safety nets — many Southern and Republican-led — as having the worst outcomes on women’s health and maternal mortality.
Sources: women’s health performance scorecards.
Again: cheaper rent, but worse protections and services for some of the most vulnerable people.
State comparison example:
Oregon → Alabama
Alabama offers cheap rent but some of the highest maternal death rates and weakest reproductive health access in the country. Oregon ranks among the strongest.
7. Environmental protection and water quality vary widely — and many red states rank poorly for drinking-water safety.
Analyses of Safe Drinking Water Act violations show Western and Southern states (Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma) with some of the highest violation rates.
Some blue states have local crises, but enforcement gaps are widest in states with weaker environmental regulation.
Sources: national SDWA violation studies.
State comparison example:
Illinois → Oklahoma
Illinois cities have had episodic water crises, but Oklahoma ranks among the worst for health-based drinking-water violations statewide.
Environmental and water quality are heavily policy-dependent and local, not simply “red good, blue bad” or vice versa. But if you move to a state with weaker environmental regulation and enforcement, you’re taking on more risk.
8. Employment is strong nationwide, but job quality tends to be higher in blue states.
Unemployment rates don’t differ dramatically across states. But job quality — wages, safety rules, benefits, worker protections — tends to be stronger in blue states.
Sources: unemployment comparison (for example, Kansas at 2.5%, Massachusetts at 2.7-2.9%).
State comparison example:
New Jersey → Arkansas
Arkansas offers lower housing costs but far fewer worker protections, lower average wages, and higher workplace-risk exposure.
The Bottom Line
You can absolutely find cheaper housing in many red states. That part is true.
But “cheaper” often pairs with:
Lower wages
Higher poverty
Weaker schools
Worse health care
Higher murder rates
Higher uninsured rates
Weaker worker protections
Poorer environmental oversight
Cheaper rent doesn’t mean a better or safer life.
For many people, the realistic ways to ease cost pressure are things like better wages, housing policy, health coverage, and local reforms.
Moving hundreds of miles is not the “easiest” way for ordinary Americans to deal with rising prices — no matter how confidently a biased treasury secretary says it on TV.
As we take stock of the year, it’s worth remembering that even people who live in states with strong wages, solid services, and better health outcomes face real challenges. Housing costs are hitting Washington families hard.
But looking at the full picture — not just one simplistic talking point — helps us see where the real work is needed and where focused action can make the biggest difference.
Resources for Action
🟧 Economic Equity & Stability
A ranked guide to advocacy groups promoting economic security, fair wages, and opportunities for working families.
🟧 Affordable Housing & Homelessness
A ranked guide to advocacy groups advancing housing access and supporting people experiencing homelessness.
🟧 Tax Reform & Public Investment
A ranked guide to advocacy groups working for a fairer tax system and economic opportunity for all.
🟧 Labor Rights, Fair Wages & Unions
A ranked guide to advocacy organizations and unions championing workers’ rights, fair pay, safe conditions, and collective power in the workplace.
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